Columbus, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

805
FXUS63 KOAX 091133
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
633 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 1-8 PM today for a
  part of northeast Nebraska, due to the combination of gusty
  winds and low relative humidity.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible (15-30%
  chance) early this morning, and then again this afternoon into
  Thursday morning.

- Warm and breezy to windy conditions will lead to fire weather
  concerns on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

     Today through Thursday...

Current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing
east through portions of MT, ND, SK, and MB with weaker
perturbations present over SD and NE, on the cyclonic side of
mid/upper-level wind maxima nosing into the central Plains.
Forcing for ascent associated with the SD/NE disturbances
coupled with a belt of low/mid-level warm advection occurring
ahead of a surface low analyzed over central NE have fostered
isolated, light showers over the area early this morning. The
presence of a dry air mass through a 10-kft sub-cloud layer is
resulting in considerable evaporation of any falling
precipitation with only a couple locations reporting a trace
over the last several hours.

Latest CAM guidance suggests that isolated showers (15-20%
PoPs) will remain possible through 6 or 7 AM before shifting
east of the area, in tandem with the stronger forcing for
ascent. At the same time, winds will switch to northwest with
the passage of the surface low and associated front through the
area, with breezy conditions (gusts of 25-30 mph) developing
this afternoon amidst a deeply mixed boundary layer. The deep
mixing will yield warmer temperatures in the upper 60s to low
70s, and drier conditions with afternoon relative humidity
falling into the 18-25% range; the lowest of which will be along
the SD border. Given the anticipated weather conditions and
presence of cured, fine fuels, a Red Flag Warning will be in
effect from 1-8 PM for Knox, Cedar, Pierce, and Wayne counties
in northeast NE.

Another round of isolated to widely scattered showers appears
possible this afternoon into evening (15-30% Pops), mainly across
our western and southern counties as another belt of forcing for
ascent overspreads the deeply mixed, steep-lapse-rate environment.

By late tonight into Thursday, a more substantial shortwave
trough is forecast to move through the mid MO Valley with the
best chance for a few showers (15-20% PoPs) existing over far
eastern NE, and moreso, southwest IA. Additionally, the
combination of temperatures in the 60s, breezy to windy
conditions, and minimum relative humidity of 23-30% will result
in very high fire danger across portions of eastern NE Thursday
afternoon into early evening.


     Friday and Saturday...

Surface high pressure will build through the area Thursday night and
Friday with lighter winds and slightly higher relative humidity
limiting fire-weather concerns. Those concerns will be short-lived
as a deepening lee trough over the High Plains promotes warm (i.e.,
highs in the 70s) and windy conditions on Saturday. The amount of
low-level moisture return will ultimately dictate the extent of the
fire-weather threat with very high fire danger currently indicated.


     Sunday through Tuesday...

The primary features of interest during this timeframe are a
shortwave trough and associated surface frontal system that will
move through the north-central U.S. The latest global, ensemble
means are in reasonably good agreement in the track and
intensity of the mid-level system, as well as the timing of the
surface cold front through the area on Sunday. Those models
indicate the best precipitation potential remaining to the north
of our area, and that`s reflected in this forecast update with
only sporadic 20% PoPs.

Highs on Sunday will be a function of frontal timing with the
forecast indicating readings in the 70s and 80s. Slightly cooler
highs in the 60s are projected for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

VFR conditions prevail for this TAF cycle. Winds will be gusty
today, primarily after 15z, with gusts potentially near 30 kts
at times across all terminals. Winds will subside after 00-01z.

Widely scattered rain showers are possible (15-30% chance) this
afternoon, mainly along and west of a line from K4V9 to KOLU to
KLNK. Due to the widely scattered nature of the showers, have
not included any direct mentions at KLNK for this issuance as
confidence on direct impacts to terminal is low, but will
continue to monitor trends and make amendments if needed. Have
hinted potential shower development with BKN120 ceilings at
KLNK. VFR mid to high level cloudiness will continue through the
TAF period for the rest of the terminals. .

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ011-012-017-018.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Castillo/Nicolaisen